scenario building

“Scenarios are a tool for helping us to take a long view in a world of great uncertainty. The name comes from the theatrical term “scenario” – the script for a film or play. Scenarios are stories about they way the world might turn out tomorrow, stories that can help us recognize and adapt to changing aspects of our present environment. In a coporate context the precise definition of scenario is a tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decisions might be played out. It is a set of organized ways for us to dream effectively about our own future.Concretely they resemble a set of stories, whether written out, or spoken (or visualised). They are built around carefully constructed “plots” that make the significant elements of the world scene stand out of wordly. Scenarios are not predictions. It is simpy not possible to predict the future with certainty. Scenarios are vehicles for helping people learn. Unlike traditional business forecasting or market research, they present alternative images of the future; they do not merely extrapolate the trends of the present.” – The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz

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One response to “scenario building

  1. Pingback: Update on scenario building « what am i doing?

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