Great provocative post by one of our favourite IFTF futurelyricist; Alex Soojung-Kim Pang. He wonders what might have or could have happened if “futures” actually came about from this time and enforced from another set of cultural, political and social explosions and optimisms/pessimisms and the reactions of future forecasting that would have manifested around the technologies of now; the genetic technologies of self-knowledge, neuroscience, diy_synbio, man made sperm (that does not sound right), dna computing, carbon nanotubes, web 2.o etc
“One of thing things I’ve kept coming back to is that, if you take seriously the criticisms or warnings of people like Nassim Taleb on the impossibility of prediction, Philip Tetlock and J. Scott Anderson on the untrustworthiness of expert opinion, Robert Burton on the emotional bases of certainty, Gary Marcus and Daniel Gilbert on the mind, etc., you could end up with a radically skeptical view of the whole enterprise of futures and forecasting. Or, read another way, you end up with a primer for how to be an incredibly successful futurist, even while you’re a shameless fraud, and always wrong.
No expertise, no problem!
One simple idea may be one too many!
Get prizes for being outrageous!
There’s a success hiding in every failure!
Don’t remember your failures; no one else will!”