Kurzweil’s predictions get 86% accuracy – was he the instigator or soothsayer?

  • Ray Kurzweil is giving himself a high B. With his recent essay “How My Predictions Are Faring” the noted futurist reviews forecasts he made more than a decade ago for our current times. His predicted future is now the present, so it’s time to see how he did. The report looks at 147 predictions that Kurzweil made in his 1999 book The Age of Spiritual Machines, and goes on to briefly explore comments in The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990) as well as his more recent The Singularity is Near (2005). Of the 147 predictions Kurzweil maintains that 115 were ‘entirely correct’, 12 ‘essentially correct’, and 17 ‘partially correct, with just 3 being outright wrong. Counting only the entirely and essentially correct, Kurzweil claims an accuracy of 86%.

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